![]() This is what the rest of this post will be about. I have been working on this idea for quite a while and now I think I can make such a model. For that, we need to make a model and see how the various elements of the economic system may interact with each other to generate collapse. We need to understand what factors might lead us to fall much faster than we have been growing so far. Rather, we may see a decline so fast that we can only call it "collapse." The symptoms are all there, but how to prove that it is what is really in store for us? It is not enough to quote a Roman philosopher who lived two thousand years ago. With oil production peaking or set to peak soon, it is hard to think that we are going to see a gentle downward slope of the economy. We might call this tendency the "Seneca effect" or the "Seneca cliff," from Lucius Anneaus Seneca who wrote that " increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."Ĭould it be that the Seneca cliff is what we are facing, right now? If that is the case, then we are in trouble. Don't you stumble, sometimes, into something that seems to make a lot of sense but you can't say exactly why? For a long time, I had in mind the idea that when things start going bad, they tend to go bad fast.
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